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Aircraft trajectory prediction and aviation safety in ADS-B failure conditions based on neural network Scientific Reports
Similarly, Fukuda et al.19 builds trajectory prediction models based on aircraft performance, airline operations, navigation databases, and weather forecasts. Zhang et al.18 implements an online four-dimensional trajectory prediction (4D-TP) method. Firstly, a 4D-TP model is established based on the dynamic model, air-craft intent, environmental conditions and performance parameters. Then, the ADS-B data is com-pared with the predicted trajectory. When the position or speed deviation exceeds the pre-set threshold, the aircraft intent is updated and the predicted trajectory is re-predicted.
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The basic unit of LSTM has 3 gate structures, namely the forget gate, the update gate and the output gate. The function of the forgetting gate is to decide what information should be discarded or retained. The information from the previous hidden state and the current input information are passed to the sigmoid function at the same time, and the output value is between 0 and 1. The closer to 0 means the more it should be discarded, and the closer to 1 means the more it should be kept. Update gates are used to update the LSTM cell state to determine what information from the current input is important and needs to be added. The output gate is used to determine the value of the next hidden state, which contains the previously entered information.
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- Zhang et al.18 implements an online four-dimensional trajectory prediction (4D-TP) method.
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The comparison of relative errors in longitude prediction results. The comparison of prediction results of 7 methods on longitude trajectories. Considering RNN also has some problems, such as the disappearance of gradients. Therefore, LSTM is proposed, and this network structure is also used in this article. Don’t be so greedy right now; there are boundaries to how far you may stretch yourself.
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Later, Pang et al.39 proposed a new Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (CGAN) method for the weather-related aircraft trajectory prediction problem. In disaster situations, UAVs and aircrafts will perform rescue missions jointly in limited airspace. However, there is a risk of collision—conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) issues. In addition, a state estimation method based on Kalman algorithm is proposed to realize aircraft trajectory planning.
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- It can be seen that the Forward and Backward layers are jointly connected to the output layer.
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- It is clear that the output of the hidden layer depends not only on the input but also on the output of the hidden layer from the previous moment.
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- Finally, a trajectory with frequent changes was selected for prediction, and compared with 7 prediction methods.
- Figure 15 shows the trajectory prediction results of latitude.
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- The relative error between MLP and SVR is also relatively large, especially after the prediction point 160.
- Therefore, in the event of ADS-B failure, it is important to make short-term predictions of the trajectory of the aircraft, which can improve aviation safety in busy airspace.
- Similarly, Ma et al.37 combines CNN with LSTM to construct a deep learning hybrid model to predict the 4D trajectory of an aircraft.
In order to solve the aforementioned gradient vanishing problem, LSTM is proposed. Each node in RNN uses the same parameters, and the output of the node is determined only by the weight, bias, and activation function. Compared to RNN, LSTM are composed of a series of LSTM Units, which also use a chain structure.